2025 peak-season data shows proactive retailers held return rates virtually flat as broader U.S. industry topped $850 billion in returns
BURLINGTON, MA, UNITED STATES, February 24, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — Returnalyze, Inc., the industry’s leading AI-powered retail returns prevention platform, today released its 2025 Retail Peak-Season Returns Performance Report, revealing a striking divide between retailers with active returns-prevention strategies and the broader market.
The report’s headline finding stands in sharp contrast to the mounting returns crisis facing the broader retail industry: among retailers with active returns prevention strategies, overall return rates shifted by just +0.1 percentage points year-over-year across holiday peak-season periods – a remarkable show of stability at a time when the National Retail Federation reports U.S. retailers processed more than $850 billion in total returns last year.
“While the industry continues to grapple with surging return rates and the margin pressure that comes with them, this data makes clear that a proactive prevention strategy can bend the curve,” said Rick Cramer, CEO of Returnalyze. “The most efficient return is the one that never happens – and retailers who invest in the right predictive tools are proving that every day.”
Key Findings
A Clear and Predictable Seasonal Curve – The report identifies a consistent pattern across apparel and footwear: return rates peak in the four weeks leading into Black Friday and steadily decline as the season progresses toward Christmas. In several categories, return rates fell from early-season highs of 26% to late-season lows near 20%, reflecting a well-documented shift from exploratory self-purchasing to more decisive, gift-oriented buying.
High-Return Categories Remain a Persistent Challenge – Certain categories continue to post structurally elevated return rates regardless of season timing. Dresses recorded return rates as high as 48.2% year-over-year in the pre-Black Friday window, while denim exceeded 51% in the early season and remained above 45% even in the lowest-return period. These categories, the report notes, represent the greatest opportunity for targeted intervention precisely because their return behavior is both persistent and predictable.
Meaningful Improvement Is Achievable – Not all categories told the same story. Outerwear demonstrated that strategic investment in fit, product clarity, and customer guidance can drive measurable results — early-season return rates in the category declined from 41.7% to 37% year-over-year. Retailers that invested in predictive analytics, enhanced product content, and proactive customer engagement achieved double-digit reductions in return rates within targeted categories during the 2025 season.
Footwear Presents a Mixed Picture – Footwear performance varied considerably by subcategory. Boots improved in the post-Cyber Week period, declining from 31% to 29%, while sandals saw early-season return rates rise from 22.6% to 25.9% year-over-year in the pre-Black Friday window — underscoring the degree to which materials, construction, and silhouette drive return behavior at the attribute level.
Size Bracketing Remains Low But Consequential – Across all categories, size-bracketing adoption ranged between 5% and 9%, with minimal year-over-year movement. While low in absolute terms, bracketing behavior contributes meaningfully to early-season return spikes. The report identifies an opportunity for retailers to reduce unprofitable bracketing through enhanced size guidance tools, while strategically promoting bracketing in categories where it supports conversion and margin.
Strategic Recommendations
The report translates its findings into five actionable strategies for retail leaders: prioritizing fit and product clarity in high-return categories; addressing attribute-level return drivers through enhanced PDP content; expanding size-recommendation tools to influence bracketing behavior; building cross-functional alignment between merchandising, product, and eCommerce teams around return data; and investing in long-term predictive capabilities to systematically reduce return risk.
About the Report
The 2025 Retail Peak-Season Returns Performance Report is based on millions of transactions analyzed using Returnalyze’s proprietary AI algorithms, drawing on data from a defined segment of U.S. fashion, apparel, and footwear retailers with active returns prevention strategies. The analysis covers three distinct peak-season windows: the four weeks prior to Black Friday, Black Friday through Cyber Week, and post-Cyber Week through Christmas, across both the 2024 and 2025 holiday seasons.
The full report is available at Returnalyze.com/2025-peak-season.
About Returnalyze
Returnalyze is the industry’s leading AI-powered analytics platform purpose-built to prevent retail returns. Created by retail experts, it delivers real-time, SKU-level intelligence that empowers merchandising, eCommerce, product, and supply-chain leaders to identify and act immediately on the issues that drive returns. Its enterprise-grade architecture deploys quickly, integrates with existing systems, and is intuitive for teams across the organization. Today, the world’s leading retailers rely on Returnalyze to protect margin, strengthen product performance, and create frictionless customer experiences through proactive returns prevention.
Lisa Majeski
Returnalyze
+1 877-651-4411
lisa.majeski@returnalyze.com
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